Gyllenhaal’s movie isn’t a Best Picture contender, but she’s a popular actress with a serious charm offensive, and has been winning lately, sweeping the Indie Spirits and winning the Best First Director DGA Award against Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Tick Tick Boom”). In Adapted Screenplay, a close race among three women directors, WGA and BAFTA-winner Sian Heder (“CODA”), Critics Choice-winner Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”), and USC Scripters and Indie Spirits winner Maggie Gyllenhaal (“The Lost Daughter”) could make it easier for Denis Villeneuve’s space epic “ Dune” or Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car” to catch a break and win. One thing is consistent: voters tend to reward original auteur visions.

Sometimes the Screenplay Oscars match up to Best Picture winners, but in recent years there have been more splits. (Ballots are due March 22.) But this year, the question of whether or not you win your Oscar pool could come down to the two most contentious races: Adapted and Original Screenplay. With all the major precursor awards behind us, Oscar watchers have some idea of where Academy voters will go on the big night.

The movies vying for Oscars this year are all built on firm foundations.

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